As the stock market pulled back further Monday amid worries of an economic slowdown caused by new tariffs, an economist has outlined his concerns and bullish prospects for Southern Nevada along with the importance of adding federal lands for future development.
Cameron Belt, an economist with Las Vegas-based RCG Economics, an economic and real estate advisory firm, talked about what’s ahead for Southern Nevada during a presentation at the 2025 Battle Born Economic Summit sponsored by the Keystone Corp.
Zach Walkerlieb, director of the board of directors for Keystone, opened the summit talking about the importance of the push by Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo and others to get Congress to release more federal land.
“We need as much land as possible,” Walkerlieb said. “It’s what will bring affordable housing back to the city of Las Vegas and Southern Nevada along with economic development and diversification.”
In outlining the economy, Belt cited the Federal Reserve of Atlanta’s projection of 2.3 percent GDP growth in the first quarter after a 2.7 percent gain in the fourth quarter.
“The story is underwhelming,” Belt said. “Nothing has really happened the last few quarters. All it comes down to is we’re not in a recession. It’s been pretty flat.”
The real story that people continue to talk about is inflation whose growth rate has slowed since it was elevated in the aftermath of the pandemic and has spiked during the last month. The 3 percent-plus inflation rate in January is well above the target rate of 2 percent by the Federal Reserve. The cumulative impact of inflation continues to harm consumers while average weekly earnings are up 17 percent between January 2021 and January 2025 — lower than the increase of inflation up 20-plus percent, Belt said.
Debt levels came down but are now back up and similar to where they were prior to the pandemic, Belt said. Savings spiked during the pandemic when people couldn’t do much but are now 2 percent lower than they were prior to the pandemic.
“That tells the story of the U.S. economy. Prices are up and wages aren’t up enough. Debt is up and savings are down,” Belt said.
There’s a lot of questions, however, of what’s going on with the economy, Belt said.
The gap between GDP, which measures the economy, and GDI, which measures what all participants make, is at its widest gap since the Great Recession. The first measures what’s spent and the other is what’s earned across the economy, he said.
“For the past seven quarters, we’ve seen GDI lag behind GDP,” Belt said. “It could be a measurement error or something else going on behind the hood. Maybe, we’re spending more than we’re bringing in, which makes sense with the debt obligations going up. For a while, this wasn’t worrying me because at least the two lines were moving together, but the most recent ones had GDP spiking and GDI flattening out. It may be an indicator we’re slowing down quite a bit. That’s what we’ve been seeing with all the job revisions (downward).”
Belt said for those who feel like their real-life experiences are different than what they hear on television, “that’s right. It’s different. It doesn’t mean that the world is ending.”
In Southern Nevada, Belt cited how the region has “grown like gangbusters” with a more than 10 percent increase in jobs since 2019. That growth, however, has since slowed. Nevada was 47th in year-over-year job growth in November, Belt said.
“No other city has grown as fast as we have over this time frame, but while we headed the pack over the last three years, we’re slowing down quite a bit. It’s not a cause for alarm, but it’s the real thing. You can’t run at 110 percent forever. We grew dramatically for five years so we’re chilling out.”
One promising sign for the local economy is how Idaho and Montana are growing and with the I-15 corridor and since that goes from Southern California to Canada and with more imports coming from Mexico, Las Vegas is better positioned for trade routes, Belt said.
“We could be positioned well locally for inland ports where trucks meet rail,” Belt said. “There’s a pretty big opportunity here. That will strengthen our position over time.”
As for the leisure and hospitality workforce, it has gone from more than 30 percent some 20 years ago to 25 percent, Belt said. That shows diversification to the business services sector, which continues to be a positive, he said.
Wages in Southern Nevada are up 46 percent since 2014 but when adjusted for inflation is only 5 percent, Belt said. That, meanwhile, lags slightly behind the U.S.
“The story is we made more on paper, but real wealth has been hard to come by,” Belt said.
Las Vegas is only 2.6 percent below its peak when it comes to visitation, but the big concern is convention travel that’s down 11 percent from its peak, Belt said. Convention travelers spend more than tourists.
“We’re seeing a shift in who’s here, what they like to do and what they focus on,” Belt said. “It’s changing up what’s being spent on in our economy. We’ve seen gaming win flatten out as well (when adjusted for inflation). On a real basis, we’re actually 30 percent lower than we were in 2007. That isn’t necessarily bad. That says we’re not near the top yet. It’s important to be aware of this while we’re making budgets at the state level. Gaming win has flattened out, which means gaming revenue has flattened out as well or at least coming down a little bit.”
Sales tax revenue has flattened and is down as well, which also affects government budgeting that will either remain flat or fall slightly, Belt said.
“Be very conservative because that money is not going to be there and if the consumers around the whole United States are penny pinching, we’re going to be penny pinching, too,” Belt said.
Among other highlights, the Las Vegas population is expected to grow 19 percent by 2035 while jobs growth at a 17 percent rate, Belt said.
“That’s so much growth, but my question is where are they all going to be,” Belt said, citing the need for more land.
Current projections for large parcels for major development in the valley will run out of land by 2030 unless the federal government releases more land, he noted.
“If you don’t have land, you can’t build,” Belt said. “Home prices are up 10 percent year-over-year for new and 6½ percent for existing. Since 2020, it’s up 40 percent (combined). If real wages are up 5 percent, it’s really hard to buy a home. That’s translated to transactions falling off a cliff except for new homes.”
For those at the median household level in the U.S., those people pay 38 percent of that to a median mortgage. It’s 45 percent in Southern Nevada. For those in the low-income threshold that falls below 50 percent of median, the percentage is 94 percent of income would go to buying a house in Southern Nevada, Belt said.
“This is real and impacted dramatically by our available land supply,” Belt said.
Another concern is how Las Vegas used to be a low-cost operation for business relocations but the regional markets have converged and makes it less likely for companies moving to Southern Nevada, Belt added. Higher utility costs are hurting as well.
“We’re not the low-cost option we were because we’re getting constrained in a lot of ways,” Belt said. “We had it great for a long time and were able to deal with a restricted supply of land, but it’s starting to come to a head. It’s the most important thing we’re facing right now.”
While Nevada is a low-cost business, it’s in the top 10 for most complex legal codes, Belt said. National rankings put the state lower with CNBC last year having Nevada at No. 9 when it comes to ease of doing business. It’s 39th this year because zoning and land-use restrictions were added to the equation.
“When Amazon is looking to do things, they look at these rankings,” Belt said. “You can’t trick them.”
Despite all of his concerns, Belt said he remains bullish on Southern Nevada, saying he’s “optimistic but not delusional.”
Everyone wants a more diversified economy, but it’s good to play to your strengths by doubling down on leisure and hospitality, Belt said.
“Casinos are here and sports are here and what other things can we tap into that help that,” Belt said. “It’s not just that we need manufacturing but we need manufacturing of this specific thing that these casinos have to go somewhere else for right now.”
As for whether there will be a recession, Belt said he doesn’t know but it’s not off the table. The GDP versus GDI number may “come to a head,” which means stagnation at least.
“The bigger question is not whether there’s going to be a recession but is the economy healthy,” Belt said. “The answer is it’s not doing the best. Unemployment is going up. Wages are flat. Prices are going up. Debt is up and savings are down. That’s not great. We may see a situation with stagflation for a bit in all honesty where we see high unemployment and inflation keeps going, and we don’t see so much growth. I hope that’s not where we end up. We are in a moment where we need to go through some PT (physical therapy). We need to deal with some stuff nationally. We might see some damage, but it will be short-lived for the long term. We can’t blame things on decisions that are happening immediately because all of this plays out over time.”
Fortunately, Nevada is more diversified than ever and the state government has a rainy-day fund to weather a downturn, Belt said.
“In general, we’re positioned really well,” Belt said. “We’re not all of a sudden going to see another Great Recession come through and destroy Vegas. But we do need to understand that things are flattening out at the national level and be aware of that.”
Belt closed how he’s bullish on Las Vegas because it continues to do what other cities aren’t doing, citing The Sphere draws visitors and is something no one else has but wants.
