Southern Nevada retailers should see a boost in sales this holiday season despite their ongoing worries about the state of the economy and impact from the decline in tourism.
The Retail Association of Nevada projects consumers across the state will spend $6.5 billion on gifts, food, décor and other seasonal items this holiday season — a 4 percent increase from last year’s record spending. Nationwide, consumers are projected to spend an average of $890 per person this holiday season, according to the National Retail Federation.
Bryan Wachter, president of the Retail Association of Nevada, said consumers are navigating a complex landscape, inflation, elevated interest rates and a reliance on credit. These are all factors contributing to a more discerning shopper this season. He said the 4 percent projection accounts for these realities, suggesting that while spending will increase in absolute dollars, consumers are prioritizing value, seeking deals and managing their budgets strategically.
“We’re expecting this holiday season to exceed consumer spending from last year, and break $1 trillion nationwide for the first time on holiday spending,” Wachter said in an interview with the Las Vegas Business Press. “We expect Nevada to lag behind that a little bit, but we’re expecting a very robust holiday season.”
Wachter said Nevada should lag behind the nation in spending because it has a higher unemployment rate. As for why there will be an increase this year, Wachter said holiday spending has tracked higher despite lower levels of consumer confidence. There was robust back-to-school and Halloween spending and early signs of holiday shopping have been positive, he added.
“On top of that we have more shoppers in Nevada than we had last year,” Wachter said. “All of that should lead us to some positive figures going forward.”
Wachter said he hasn’t heard any problems from retailers so far this holiday season despite their overall frustration about the state of the economy and what it can mean. A vast majority of small retailers have seen their customers have less discretionary income to spend.
“We’ve seen the headwinds on consumer confidence and a decrease in visitor volume to Las Vegas,” Wachter said. “That’s going to lead to a decrease in employee hours and the number of employees needed. All of that is going to play a role in how much Nevadans can participate in the holiday season.”
Retailers have adapted incredibly well to the new economic normal, Wachter said. They are offering compelling value, innovating their business models, and working to meet the consumer where they are, both online and in-store, Wachter said.
“This season won’t be without its challenges, but our members are prepared to deliver a successful and competitive holiday shopping experience,” Wachter said.
There is a concern among retailers of the increase in fees they are being charged to process financial transactions for debit and credit cards. That will reduce their revenue.
“That fee is very high for independent retailers but even for our larger retailers that fee often exceeds the average profit amount for retailer products,” Wachter said. “It’s a huge increase in the base price for all goods and certainly plays a role in how much discretionary income there is this holiday season. There’s billions of dollars being siphoned off from Nevada purchases into these financial institutions. It comes down to the available income the business has to keep its lights on and expand their operations, add new products and add employees. It’s an expense they have no control over but are mandated to pay oftentimes at a 3 percent, 4 percent or 5 percent rate. It raises the cost of goods more than consumers enjoy.”
Continuing a decade-long trend, shoppers are prioritizing gift giving, allocating an average of $628 specifically for presents, Wachter said. This year some 42 percent of holiday shoppers had planned to browse and purchase items before November. Among those starting early, 54 percent say they do so to spread out their holiday budgets, 41 percent to avoid last-minute stress and 40 percent because they’ve found deals too good to pass up.
Online shopping remains the top choice for holiday purchases, with 55 percent of consumers planning to shop online. Other leading destinations include grocery stores (46 percent), department stores (44 percent) and discount retailers (42 percent), Wachter said.
The gifts consumers hope to receive this year are largely consistent with last year’s preferences. Gift cards (50 percent) remain the most desired items, followed by clothing and accessories (46 percent), books and other media (27 percent), and personal care or beauty products (23 percent).
In Nevada, consumer categories tied to holiday spending are projected to account for 28 percent of total retail activity, the largest share since 2019, Wachter said. Retailers in Nevada are hiring seasonal workers to handle the traditional surge in holiday shopping. RAN estimates that payrolls will expand by 2,900 seasonal positions across the state.
The National Retail Federation predicted retail sales in November and December will grow between 3.7 percent 4.2 percent over 2024. That translates to total spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion. By comparison, last year’s holiday sales rose 4.3 percent over 2023 to reach $976.1 billion.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews said the economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation. As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices given the uncertainty about trade policies, he noted.
Because of the ongoing tariff situation, retailers will be closely monitoring spending patterns and waiting to make staff additions should demand strengthen throughout the holiday season, Matthews said.
NRF’s latest holiday survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics found that consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items. The amount is the second highest in the survey’s 23-year history.
