There won’t be a crash. But it’s not going to be a 2021-style feeding frenzy either. 2026 is going to be a year where the market rewards those that are serious about a fair deal on both sides. Those who know what they want, get strategic and don’t get emotionally sidetracked every time the headlines get dramatic.
We’re still seeing long-term population momentum in Clark County. UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research estimates Clark County’s population was 2.42 million in 2024, and forecasts population growth of about 1.7 percent in both 2025 and 2026. That matters, because population growth creates long-term housing demand, even when the market gets choppy.
At the same time, the Las Vegas/Southern Nevada market has cooled off enough to bring negotiation back into play. Redfin reported that in December 2025, the median sale price in Las Vegas was about $439,000, which was basically flat year over year (up 0.1 percent). Homes took about 73 days to sell, which is longer than last year. This tells me the market is no longer a sprint, it’s a marathon.
And while price growth has cooled, it hasn’t collapsed. Zillow shows the average Las Vegas home value around $420,781, down about 2.1 percent over the past year. That’s not a meltdown, that’s a market that is breathing again.
Here’s another big reason I’m bullish on stability in 2026. Las Vegas is working through the “stuck market” problem where people don’t want to sell because they’re sitting on low mortgage rates. That’s been dragging transaction volume down. The Las Vegas Review-Journal reported about 28,498 existing homes sold in 2025, down almost 9 percent from 2024, and the lowest annual total since 2007. That’s not because nobody wants to live here. It’s because supply and rates have created gridlock. Gridlock eventually breaks.
So, what are the main issues? Jobs and the economy. Nevada’s labor market still has work to do. The Las Vegas metro unemployment rate was 5.2 percent in December 2025, according to Nevada’s Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation. That’s higher than what we’d like, but it’s also trending in the right direction.
I believe this will be a year that rewards sellers who price correctly and present their homes like a pro. The “Throw it on the MLS and name your price” era is gone. If your home doesn’t show value in the first week, it sits. And when it sits, you lose leverage fast.
Buyers who are ready and strategic will have a great opportunity. Negotiation is back. Price reductions and concessions are normal again in many markets. Redfin data reported 20 percent of homebuyers paid below asking price in 2025. That’s the kind of environment smart buyers can win in.
The winners are going to be the people who don’t wait for the market to “feel better.” They just get better. We’ve got population growth. We’ve got a market that has cooled into something more rational. We’ve got buyers regaining some leverage as we are seeing more balance. And we’ve got pent-up movement that will eventually release as people adjust to the new normal.
So, my prediction is Las Vegas in 2026 will be stable, competitive, and full of upside for the people who come prepared. The professionals will win bigger. The amateurs will complain louder. And I’ll take that trade all day.
Troy Reierson is CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Nevada, Arizona and California Properties. Last year his 2,400 real estate professionals across the three states sold 6,889 homes with a total sales volume of $4.7 billion. For more information visit bhhsnv.com.
