I have the fortunate opportunity each month to personally coach the top 25 sales professionals of my firm. While the intent is to impart helpful guidance to support them in their business, the real beneficiary is me, as I have the advantage of obtaining a very accurate snapshot of our market through these amazing conversations.
Our December topic is always focused on the coming year and the creation of their business plan and goals. I have a list of standard questions I use as an opener for this session and one of them is: “From a market perspective (not your personal business) selecting just one word, different or same, which would you select for 2022 as it compares to 2021?”
Though admittedly unfair to limit the response to only one word, it was amazing to learn from their elaboration after their word choice. No, it was not unanimous, however, the justification was very consistent! The gist is that, while not at the same frenetic pace of 2021, everyone expects more of the same in 2022.
In my 42 years in real estate in Southern Nevada, I have enjoyed a fabulous career. Thank you, Las Vegas, as I cannot take all the credit. Except for the Great Recession, from which our community very painfully survived, Southern Nevada’s business climate has always been the “last in and first out” of every economic setback. Though that recession officially started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, the financial devastation impacted our community for years beyond that date.
Everyone who called Las Vegas home during that time suffered, period. The shock and panic from that era will likely remain on our minds forever. So much so that, as we are enjoying the best real estate market ever, many are legitimately fearful of a return to the bubble.
I, for one, am entirely confident that this will not occur in the years of our near future. My confidence is not based on unfounded optimism or Las Vegas pride, but on the unavoidable fundamentals.
First, the pandemic impacted America’s housing choices in a huge way, and Las Vegas has benefited significantly from The Great Migration, mostly from our neighbors to the west. We can debate the ultimate impact of California on our community, but suffice it to say it has been economically positive.
Next, also pandemic related, Marko Kolanovic, head of quantitative research at JP Morgan Chase, declared: “The pandemic will end and the normal will return in 2022.” This view is shared by multiple economists and scientists, and is certainly a positive for our hospitality-heavy economy.
Interest rates, while clearly certain to rise, are predicted to remain below 4 percent for the rest of the year and the availability of financing will remain strong, further supporting a robust economy and real estate market. Realtor.com is predicting a modest 5.9 percent appreciation rate for Southern Nevada in 2022. Thank goodness, as the 20-plus percent we’ve experienced over the last few years is neither healthy or sustainable.
Finally, the economic and development tailwind that Southern Nevada is enjoying has the momentum of a locomotive. Due in part to our entrée into professional sports the positive economic impact will continue to keep Las Vegas the “Entertainment Capital of the World,” and I could not be prouder to call this community my home. I wish you all the best for this amazing year ahead, and thank our fabulous team of professionals for causing my eternal optimism.
Bob Hamrick is the chairman and CEO of Coldwell Banker Premier Realty, real estate brokerage serving Southern Nevada, which he operates with his wife, president and COO, Molly Hamrick.
