Executives at housing research companies are weighing in on what the next four years will look like for the commercial real estate market and housing market, including the potential that luxury home sales are boosted.
Gregg Logan, managing director of RCLCO, said with the election of Donald Trump and his administration, the real estate market faces significant potential shifts. He said Trump’s background in real estate and previous administration’s business-friendly policies suggest that his new term could introduce notable changes across both commercial and residential property sectors, potentially even a return to less regulation.
“Trump’s potential influence on the real estate market is a mixed bag of potential influences,” Logan said. “In Trump’s first term, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 temporarily boosted GDP growth, led to a short-term increase in corporate profits and spurred a rise in consumer spending and business investment. But this disproportionately benefited the wealthy and corporations, with only modest wage gains for most workers. Meanwhile the tax cuts substantially increased the federal deficit, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability. This time around his policy’s influences on inflation, a growing federal deficit and a tighter immigration policy could similarly lead to mixed results for the economy, overall, and real estate in particular, making adaptability essential for industry stakeholders.”
Real estate professionals need to assess how Trump’s proposed economic and housing policies might shape the market — both to seize emerging opportunities and to mitigate potential risks, Logan said.
“Tariffs and immigration policy changes present the risk of returning to rapid price growth, which could make new investment difficult,” Logan said.
There are opportunities with tax cuts and regulatory easing, Logan said. The potential for short-term stimulus for commercial real estate as tax cuts and reduced regulations might encourage business expansion and investments, he said.
Tax breaks favoring high-income individuals may drive demand for upscale and luxury properties, leading to higher activity in exclusive markets, Logan said.
“Potential tax breaks for high-income individuals could increase demand for luxury properties, as wealthy investors may pursue high-end real estate assets,” Logan said. “If Trump’s tax policies favor high-net-worth individuals, luxury markets could experience a surge in activity.”
There will be challenges, Logan added. Proposed tariffs on imports, especially a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods could increase construction costs, driving up prices on housing and commercial projects. Tariff-induced inflation may lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, further impacting new home affordability, he noted.
“Rising inflation and material costs could hinder affordable housing development,” Logan said. “Higher mortgage rates, aimed at countering inflation, would continue to make homeownership more challenging for middle- and lower-income buyers, while propping up demand for rentals.”
High federal spending combined with tax cuts could grow the deficit, putting additional upward pressure on interest rates.
“Inflation would increase costs for construction materials, labor and mortgage rates, dampening real estate demand,” Logan said.
Tighter immigration may reduce the labor pool for construction, increasing wage pressures and project costs. Additionally, a lower influx of immigrants could reduce demand for rental housing in major cities, Logan said.
Rising construction costs and mortgage rates will continue to complicate affordable housing development,” Logan said. “Further, the new administration is not likely to take up the push for supporting increased housing production.”
Logan said the U.S. economy remains the primary driver of real estate demand. Trump’s proposed economic policies, including tariffs, tax cuts and stricter immigration are expected to have a broad impact on the U.S. economy, which will, in turn, affect the real estate market.
Logan cited how Goldman Sachs estimates that these tariffs could reduce GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points by mid-2025, potentially slowing commercial real estate development in economically sensitive sectors such as manufacturing and retail. The inflationary pressure from tariffs could once again prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance, potentially increasing interest rates.
“While Trump’s tax cuts might provide short-term economic stimulus, economists expect his immigration policies and additional trade restrictions could dampen consumer spending and business investment,” Logan said.
Trump’s tax cuts and regulatory easing could stimulate commercial real estate, Logan said. He noted, however, the benefits may be temporary or offset by economic drawbacks from other policies, including rising tariffs and immigration limits.
“Economists remain divided on the potential for inflation during Trump’s term,” Logan said. “Some anticipate that a combination of tax cuts and increased federal spending may drive inflation up significantly. Rising inflation would raise costs for construction, labor and mortgage rates, dampening demand for new homes. Meanwhile, 68 percent of economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expect Trump’s policies to increase the federal deficit, which could place upward pressure on interest rates as federal borrowing grows.”
Stricter immigration policies may affect real estate both directly and indirectly, Logan said. Reduced immigration could shrink the labor pool for construction, pushing up wages and limiting workforce availability, which would increase project costs.
“Additionally, fewer immigrants would lower demand for rental housing, particularly in urban areas that traditionally attract new arrivals,” Logan said.
Given Trump’s real estate experience, Logan suggested he may favor policies that support property development and investment. During his first term, Trump introduced the Opportunity Zone program to attract investment in economically distressed areas through tax incentives. “While investor enthusiasm has waned due to inflation, high interest rates and tax benefit expirations in 2026, Trump could renew or expand the program,” Logan said.
“An updated approach to Opportunity Zones could attract significant capital to underdeveloped areas, boosting local property values and fostering commercial interest. Nonetheless, the program has faced criticism over insufficient oversight and reporting requirements, which complicates efforts to assess its community impact.”
Rich Palacios Jr. director of research and managing principal at John Burns Research and Consulting, described how presidential policies and appointments can “greatly influence housing for years to come.”
Some of the proposed policies have the potential to help the housing shortage and affordability crisis, while some could exacerbate these issues, Palacios said. He estimates that the U.S. is undersupplied with housing and needs 1.5 million additional vacant units to return to balance, including 630,000 for sale and 830,000 for rent.
One that would have a big impact on Southern Nevada is expanding home construction on federal land.
“This change in policy could increase housing supply and affordability, but it may face regulatory, environmental and infrastructure challenges,” Palacios said. “Making more federal land available for construction could help move the needle faster on supply and affordability, especially if tax/financial lures were dangled to developers.”
Like Logan, Palacios cited how tariffs may increase inflation by raising the prices of imported goods, which can lead to higher costs for consumers and businesses. Higher costs for imported building products can increase construction expenses, making housing less affordable.
“This could be especially acute on the supply chain and pricing in the short-term,” Palacios said. “ U.S-based manufacturers and suppliers likely need time to prepare and scale up in anticipation of demand for domestic goods, possibly picking up should tariffs sharply rise. Homebuilders and building products dealers we survey and speak with monthly indicate that the supply chain has generally normalized following several years of volatility, and they’d prefer keeping it that way going forward if possible.”
The potential end to SALT, the state and local tax cap currently limited to $10,000, could benefit high-priced markets most by allowing residents to deduct more of their state and local taxes, Palacios said. SALT has driven Californians to relocate to Nevada.
“Ironically, some of the strongest housing markets in the country, today, are already those in upper-price ranges along the coasts that would disproportionately benefit from this proposed change (California and the Northeast, mainly),” Palacios said.
Reducing regulations during the Trump Administration could lower construction costs and increase supply quicker but may raise environmental and quality concerns, Palacios said.
“One area we’re watching closely is financial services, as any regulatory shifts could impact banks and the broader mortgage lending landscape, including underwriting requirements,” Palacios said. “The government plays an integral part in the mortgage market via its oversight of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Federal Housing Administration and Veterans Affairs loans, which combined accounted for 70 percent of first-lien mortgage originations in 2023 and 61 percent in 2024.”
