Despite slowed consumer spending and a decline in Las Vegas tourism, no one should be worried about where the city is heading long term as an attraction for tourists and business leaders and ongoing migration.
In his address to Las Vegas business leaders at Preview Las Vegas at the Wynn Las Vegas, Jeremy Aguero, a principal at Applied Analysis, told the group he was cutting through the noise — population growth is recalibrating , consumer spending is strained but resilient, jobs are shifting but not disappearing, investment is moving to data centers and Las Vegas tourism remains world-leading.
Aguero’s goal was to provide a clearer view of the real risks, emerging opportunities and strategic decision points leaders should be watching as they plan for the year ahead.
There are long-term issues to keep an eye on, Aguero said. The declining birth rate will have a big impact on the economy in the future since it’s declined 55 percent since 1960.
Some 84 percent of Generation Z and 71 percent of millennials surveyed say current economic conditions — including inflation, the cost of living and job security — are influencing their decisions to have children or expand their family. The median cost of a middle-income family to raise a child is $310,605.
“For a young couple trying to get ahead in our community and our country that’s remarkable,” Aguero said.
While the nation’s demographics are creating headwinds. Nevada’s continued in-migration helps offset, though not eliminate, those pressures, Aguero said.
“Nevada is doing a pretty good job in this regard,” Aguero said. “Not that long ago we were falling down the listing, but now we are back in the top 10 of where people are moving to.”
Aguero said Nevada welcomes all the wealthy people moving from California and elsewhere. Nevada has the third highest in-bound share in the West behind Oregon and Idaho, and Las Vegas is No. 1 in the nation for large metro areas.
“We look at in-migration statistics of who is coming (to Nevada) and why they are coming,” Aguero said. “They are coming for family (20.5 percent), retirement (19.9 percent), jobs (19.9 percent), lifestyle (13 percent) and cost (8.1 percent) is high on the list. We know costs have gotten more expensive in Nevada, but it is part of who we are.”
Some 39.1 percent of people moving to the state are 65 and older and 30.8 percent are 55 to 64, Aguero said. Some 12.5 percent are 45 to 54 while 11.7 percent are 25 to 44. Only 5.8 percent are 34 and younger.
“These retirees make up a huge share of Nevada’s existing population, and Southern Nevada is benefiting tremendously from that,” Aguero said. “They buy services and goods, and they don’t take jobs overall. Population growth isn’t collapsing; it’s recalibrating. Birth rates have fallen for decades, households are smaller and family decisions are shaped by cost pressures. Migration still matters, but demographics are defining the future.”
Baby boomers are the wealthiest generation in the history of the U.S. and that is why it’s important to get those retirees to the state, Aguero said.
“They represent 23 percent of the population and more than 50 percent of all household income and what are they going to do with it,” Aguero asked. “They are going to live as long as they can and as good as they can.”
Aguero highlighted how consumer confidence is at its lowest level since the late 1970s. It’s lower than the Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan and when the stock market crashed in the late 1980s. It’s lower than the early 1990s recession, the dot-com bubble, Sept. 11, the Great Recession and the pandemic.
That’s the case despite GDP being up 16 percent since the pandemic and corporate profits after tax are up almost 80 percent. The idea that the economy is collapsing and consumers aren’t moving forward isn’t true, and economists pinpoint a potential recession at 27 percent.
The issue is a K-shaped economic recovery with those at the top doing well and consumers at the bottom being stressed.
“Financial markets and higher-income households have rebounded strongly, while broad consumer sentiment has decreased, signaling an uneven economic recovery,” Aguero said. “That isn’t going away, and we have to find that degree of balance as we go forward.”
There’s some good news.
Income growth has outplaced inflation over the last three years, which means consumers are doing better than before. Interest rates are coming down slowly and need to fall more to spur the housing market.
But the issue, Aguero said, is it costs a family of four in Nevada $238,534 to live comfortably and that creates a challenge.
There is a workforce restructuring going on that has an impact. Baby boomers aren’t retired, and it’s harder for younger workers, especially college graduates, to find jobs, Aguero said.
While the average age of workers has crept up to 42, the leisure and hospitality industry that dominates Las Vegas is 32 by comparison and increasing, Aguero said.
“We can’t ignore that leisure and hospitality is among the top five fastest-aging sectors anywhere in the United States,” Aguero said. “We are getting older, and how are we going to replace all of those jobs?”
The good news is Nevada ranked fifth in the nation in the talent attraction scorecard behind Florida and Texas in the top two spots, and ahead of Arizona.
“The industries that we have targeted in Nevada and if we go back to the early 2000s to where we are at today, we have outpaced the United States in every one of the industries we have been targeting as a state,” Aguero said. “Health and medicine, logistics, advanced manufacturing and business information.”
Nevada’s growth in the labor force is growing 1.3 percent a year, twice the national average.
“Layoffs are loud, but the data tell a different story,’ Aguero said. “Unemployment remains low with 71 percent of employers can’t find skilled talent and job growth is shifting toward specialized and trade roles. The issue isn’t job quantity; it’s job alignment.”
While the region has restraints on the amount of land available for development, Aguero said they are not bound by those limitations. There’s $33 billion in the development pipeline, including the ongoing construction of the new Hard Rock Las Vegas on the Strip. The A’s baseball stadium is under construction on the former Tropicana Las Vegas site.
“Investment isn’t retreating; it’s reallocating,” Aguero said. “Capital spending remains strong. Construction is shifting toward digital infrastructure, and data-center investment is accelerating. Southern Nevada now leads the nation in projected capacity growth.”
Even though visitation has declined in 2025, there are a lot of positives to build on as Las Vegas is a top destination for conventions, and that’s only growing with expanded meeting space. Allegiant Stadium is the second-highest grossing stadium in the world.
Visitor volume is down across the U.S. so it’s more than just what’s happening in Las Vegas, Aguero said. The Sphere continues to be an attraction to bring visitors to the city.
What’s getting lost in the noise of the visitor volume being down is that locals’ casinos are “absolutely crushing it, and will continue to,” Aguero said. “They never lose sight of who their customer is and continue to drive value overall.”
Aguero dispelled any notion that Gen Z, which goes up to age 28, aren’t showing up to Las Vegas because they outspend baby boomers in non-gaming at $1,742 or by nearly $300.
A map that shows every time someone opens up an app, reveals that younger generations are coming to the city — a stat backed up by recent data released by the city’s tourism agency, Aguero said.
All the high-end results such as the Wynn, Bellagio, Aria, Palazzo and Venetian had record years in 2025.
“Yes, we have a K-shaped recovery, and it isn’t perfect but nonetheless we continue to be the place for premium occupancy and premium events,” Aguero said.
Beyonce did a photo shoot in Las Vegas for Formula One that generated 625 million impressions in one day, he noted.
“To have a shot like that going viral around the world is a game-changer for Las Vegas and its ability,” Aguero said. “We are doing amazing things. Investment experience still drives value. Visitors are prioritizing premium events, world-class venues and moments worth remembering .
In a selective spending environment, Las Vegas delivers experiences that people still show up for.”
