Cadence in east Henderson outperformed the broader new-home market, nationally, by moving up in the mid-year rankings in 2025 to No. 3 in the nation.
Cadence, which finished No. 3 in the rankings for the full year 2024, ranked No. 4 in the mid-year 2024 ranking, according to housing consulting firm RCLCO.
Cadence recorded 722 sales in the first half of 2025, four fewer than the first six months of 2024. That’s less than a 1 percent decline.
New home sales among the 50 top-selling master-planned communities were down 6.6 percent at the end of June compared to the pace set by top communities in the first half of 2024.
Economic uncertainty, weak consumer sentiment and continued affordability challenges are contributing to a cooling new home market, said Karl Pischke, an RCLCO principal.
The broader new home market experienced a similar decline, with sales of new single-family houses in the United States at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000 in June, representing a 6.6 percent decline from June 2024, Pischke said
The Villages active-adult community is once again estimated to remain the top-selling community in the nation as it continues to attract retiree buyers to Central Florida, Pischke said.
Sarasota, Florida’s Lakewood Ranch claims the No. 2 spot overall, and the title of top-selling multigenerational community with 1,185 sales.
Summerlin ranked No. 7 in the nation with 515 sales, a 14 percent drop from the 596 sales in the first half of 2024. It ranked No. 5 at mid-year 2024.
Heartland at Tule Springs, a D.R. Horton development in North Las Vegas, remained at No. 41 in the nation at mid-year. It had 211 sales, a 14 percent decline from 244.
Inspirada came in at No. 42, down from No. 38 a year ago. It had 207 sales, down 21 percent from 261 a year ago.
Skye Canyon in northwest Las Vegas fell out of the top 50 after ranking No. 48 a year ago when it had 213 sales. The data for 2025 sales are incomplete, but Pischke said it will end up just above 100 sales.
Pishcke noted that Cadence is 62 percent higher in sales than it was in the first half of 2023, which shows how strong the master plan has been in setting itself up for success with supply to meet demand for new homes.
“This year we saw declines in sales across master plans, but Cadence was quite successful in the face of broader declines,” Pischke said. “Only seeing less than a 1 percent decline is a pretty strong success.”
Pischke said master plans are holding up better than other new home sales outside of master plans when comparing the same developments year-over-year. Those sales are down 4 percent compared to the broader marketplace.
“Consumer sentiment and economic uncertainty are the reasons sales are down,” Pischke said. “That has spooked buyers. There is definitely an affordability component, and I don’t want to downplay that. But the economic uncertainty aspect of this is a real thing. Master plan communities — and historic evidence backs that up — do better in times of economic uncertainty and when consumers aren’t as confident in the economy.
“As a result, a community like Cadence, given what’s been done and the amenities it offers, there’s a tendency for prospective buyers to view that as a safer investment for their capital. They are buying into a community with a lifestyle and with the offerings that allow them to live the life they would like and also feel safe that their investment is going to last, compared to a regular new-home subdivision. Cadence is a good representation of that broader master plan community trend.”
In talking about Summerlin, Pischke heaped praise on the master plan community that has remained in the top 50 of the RCLCO rankings since the rankings started in 1994. That’s quite the longevity that’s unmatched and leads the way in the nation, he added.
Summerlin has had 28 years in the top 25, and 2025 will mark 29 at this rate. It had a top 10 appearance from 1994 to 2007 and then again every year since 2015. From 2018 to 2021, it had a top-three appearance.
“It is remarkable that Summerlin is continuing to perform at that top 10 pace,” Pischke said. “It is not surprising to see fluctuations (lately). They’ve had a lot of top-three finishes over the last several years. But given the broader market concerns and affordability concerns when you’re looking at a community that’s been around as long as it has, it commands price premiums on a lot of products compared to other builder subdivisions in the market. That’s a component when you are looking at the broader market of potential buyers you are seeking to attract.”
Inspirada’s continued decline in the rankings was expected as the master plan in west Henderson is set to wind down its sales in 2026.
“Their pace in the 200s represents that wind down, but to have a finish in the top 50 right until the end is pretty rare,” Pischke said. “That’s a testament to the value they have created in their community.”
Going forward for the rest of 2025, Pischke said he sees Las Vegas facing the same issues as the rest of the country — affordability concerns, economic uncertainty and consumer confidence.
“I think the positive in all of this is that job growth has remained fairly strong throughout the country, and it suggests to us there are a lot of households that are still financially capable of purchasing a home. The tailwinds of demographic factors are there in terms of long-term demand for home ownership and structural undersupply. Once we start seeing some movement in mortgage rates, that has a likelihood of supercharging the market, particularly given the job growth we’ve seen and overall health of most Americans, economically.”
Pischke said they continue to monitor economic forecasts and how the balance of the year might look for inflation and what happens with tariffs. How consumers perceive the economy will have an impact on their decision to wade into the new home market.
“We will probably end up a big down overall in 2025 compared to 2024 by year end, but, hopefully, as mortgage rates come down and interest rates come down, assuming the Federal Reserve doesn’t have to get more hawkish due to inflation, that by mid-2026 we’ll start seeing some improvement,” Pischke said. “If builders are disciplined now as we look to historical slowdowns in the new-home market — not this is anything like the great financial crisis (in the late 2000s) — but we have builders who are positioned, now, to where as sales are declining, starts are declining and permits are declining.
“Today’s slowdown in permits and starts, both of which are down significantly year over year, is going to result in fewer sales six months from now. There’s no way around that we’ll be looking at a slower 2025 compared to 2024, and the hope is we will see things pick up next year on the back of interest rates coming down. That’s what we will watch for on how sales will pick up.”
